The Greater Manchester mayoral election: a silent contest for power

In the shadow of Andy Burnham's ascent to Downing Street and the bizarre circus of the Clacton by-election, a contest of profound importance for England's devolution is unfolding almost unnoticed. For the first time since the metro mayor role was created in 2017, Andy Burnham is not on the ballot. Yet with polling stations opening in days, the campaign for the most powerful local office outside London has been remarkably subdued.

It is difficult to overstate the significance of this election. The next mayor will inherit responsibility for the Bee Network, policing oversight, housing and regeneration, adult skills, aspects of health policy, and a budget running into billions of pounds. They will become the public face of England's largest city region outside London at a moment when devolution appears set to accelerate under a government led by the man who once held the job. In short, there could scarcely be a more vital time for this election to be happening. So why has it struggled to capture national attention?

The gravitational pull of Westminster

The answer lies less with the candidates than with the extraordinary political moment. Normally, a contest to replace one of Britain's best-known politicians would command sustained attention. Instead, it has been squeezed by two national stories that have consumed almost all the available political oxygen.

Andy Burnham's arrival in Downing Street has become the defining political story of the summer. Every cabinet appointment, policy announcement, and diplomatic engagement has generated headlines. National media have devoted considerable attention to Burnham's transition from Manchester Town Hall to Number 10 because the implications extend far beyond the city region itself. For Greater Manchester, there is understandable fascination in watching one of its own occupy the highest office in the country.

The second story competing for attention has unfolded hundreds of miles away. The parliamentary by-election in Clacton has become a national political event, framed as another crucial test of Nigel Farage and Reform UK's electoral strength. Mr Farage, under pressure over allegations of failing to declare a £5m gift from a crypto billionaire, has responded by asking the people of Clacton to back him or sack him. The main parties, however, have boycotted the election, leading to something of a circus. Thirty-four candidates, from Count Binface to Baron Von Thunderclap, will be on the ballot. National broadcasters and newspapers have devoted extensive coverage to Essex, analysing what the result could mean for British politics.

A campaign overshadowed by events elsewhere

Back up north, some senior party sources have expressed concern about how few people appear to know that an election is going on. Speaking to one man in the street this week, a reporter found that he assumed Bev Craig would take on Andy Burnham's job almost as though it were a succession. He will not be the only person to think that.

Unlike previous contests, this mayoral election has perhaps lacked one defining issue capable of dominating public debate. Burnham's earlier campaigns were associated with clear political narratives, whether standing up to Westminster during the pandemic, bringing buses back under public control, or championing further devolution. This campaign has been fought across a broad range of policy areas, from transport and housing to policing and economic development, but without one issue emerging as the clear dividing line between candidates.

However, the Manchester Evening News mayoral hustings held at Chetham's School of Music earlier this month revealed sharp dividing lines on certain issues. Candidates clashed on immigration, housing, gender identity, and crucially Labour's record. Bev Craig and the Labour administration were repeatedly accused of ignoring the outer boroughs of Greater Manchester in favour of sustained growth in the city centre. There are certainly debates to be had.

Turnout remains stubbornly low

Despite the growing influence of the mayoralty, turnout has remained relatively modest throughout its history. The inaugural election in 2017 saw 28.9 per cent of voters cast a ballot, with Andy Burnham winning convincingly on 63.4 per cent of the vote. Four years later, despite Burnham's prominence during the Covid pandemic, turnout increased only slightly to around 34 per cent. The most recent election in 2024, held under first-past-the-post for the first time, produced the highest turnout yet at 32.05 per cent. Burnham won a third successive landslide with 63.4 per cent of the vote.

Those figures suggest Greater Manchester's mayoralty has become more important faster than it has become embedded in public consciousness. The office has accumulated significant powers over transport, policing, housing, and economic development, and has now even served as a launching pad to the premiership. Yet voter participation has only edged upwards over three elections. That makes the current contest all the more unusual: never has the office carried greater prestige, yet never has the campaign appeared so overshadowed by events elsewhere.

What this means for Britain's devolution

The gravitational pull of Westminster still dominates news agendas and public debate. Even when the biggest local election in England is taking place, it can struggle to compete with events in Parliament or another high-profile parliamentary by-election. That is not necessarily a criticism of voters or the media. Burnham becoming Prime Minister is an historic moment, while Clacton carries obvious national significance. But it does highlight the unfinished nature of England's devolution journey, and just how much of a shift will be required, not just in terms of power, but also in terms of attention.

Whoever emerges victorious next week will inherit far more than Andy Burnham's office. They will take charge of an increasingly powerful institution at a time when Greater Manchester appears likely to enjoy unprecedented influence at the heart of government. They will help determine whether the promises of further devolution become reality and whether the city region continues to shape national policy from outside Westminster. That is a prize of enormous consequence. The irony is that an election with such significance has largely been fought while the political spotlight has been shining somewhere else. That should give politicians and voters pause for thought.

Frequently asked questions

Why is the Greater Manchester mayoral election being ignored?

The election is being overshadowed by two major national stories: Andy Burnham's transition to Prime Minister and the chaotic Clacton by-election involving Nigel Farage and a record number of candidates. National media attention has been focused on these events, leaving the local contest largely unreported.

What powers does the Greater Manchester mayor hold?

The mayor controls the Bee Network (transport), policing oversight, housing and regeneration, adult skills, aspects of health policy, and a budget of billions of pounds. The role has become a launching pad to the premiership, as demonstrated by Andy Burnham.

Who are the main candidates in this election?

The main candidates include Labour's Bev Craig, Reform UK's Sian Astley, and the Green Party candidate. The election is the first since 2017 without Andy Burnham on the ballot.

What is the turnout like for mayoral elections in Greater Manchester?

Turnout has been consistently low, ranging from 28.9 per cent in 2017 to 32.05 per cent in 2024. Despite the office's growing importance, voter participation has only edged upwards over three elections.